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Ice sheet expansion may have started 2,000 years ago, but we canceled that

24 October 2026 at 11:00

Barnes Ice Cap sits on the central plateau of Baffin Island, in the Canadian Arctic. It is the last surviving fragment of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, the largest of the Pleistocene ice sheets, which at its peak buried most of Canada under two miles of ice and locked away around 80 meters of sea level. That remnant has now yielded direct physical evidence that ice sheets might have reversed their retreat and started to grow again thousands of years ago.

In a recent Science study, researchers show that the Laurentide reached its smallest size about 3,600 years ago, then started re-expanding roughly 2,000 years ago, which the team interprets as the opening move of the next glaciation. Apparently, this brand-new ice age was on its way until about 1960, when human-caused climate warming reversed it.

Frozen to the bed

β€œBarnes is the last remaining piece of one of the domes of the Laurentide Ice Sheet,” says NicolΓ‘s Young, a geologist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and lead author of the study. As that enormous dome thinned through the Holocene, its margin withdrew up onto Baffin Island, and what's left today is the deflated core of something that was once two miles thick. The reason Barnes can testify about its own history, Young explains, comes down to the temperature at its base.

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UN says we're going to blow past 1.5ΒΊ warming, offers a "now what?" answer

22 October 2026 at 11:15

In 2015, all but two countries agreed to make an effort to keep global temperatures from reaching 1.5Β° C above pre-industrial readings. Since then, most of the world has largely treated what they signed on to as aspirational, and one of the largest emitters (the US) has alternately withdrawn and recommitted to the agreement. Meanwhile, the planet has responded as expected to steadily rising carbon emissions and appears to be practically at the 1.5Β° limit.

On Wednesday, for the first time, the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) acknowledged that realityΒ and conceded that the goal of keeping warming below 1.5Β° was no longer a viable one. Instead, its new goalposts focus on keeping both how long we exceed that limit and how much we exceed it by, at a minimum. Doing that will require both dramatic emissions cuts now and the removal of hundreds of gigatonnes of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere before the century is out.

Bowing to the inevitable

Depending on which baseline you use to establish pre-industrial temperatures, as well as which reconstruction of global temperatures you rely on, the world has either gotten very close to, or already exceeded, the 1.5Β° milestone. The current El NiΓ±o event, which appears exceptionally strong, will almost certainly mean that we've gone over it no matter which records you choose.

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